But the mapping the cosmic microwave background, and combining it to a ΛCDM model says that the expansion rate is only 67 km/s / Mpc.
This called the Hubble tension. In our previous blog post we suggested a simple solution to the Hubble tension: slow down the expansion rate of the universe by a factor about 1/2X, when the universe is 150 million ... 500 million years old.
We do not know why the expansion of the universe started to speed up some 5 billion years ago. We cannot take for granted that the universe has obeyed the ΛCDM formula during the previous 8.7 billion years, either.
Let us investigate how people derive the figure 67 km/s / Mpc.
What we know of the cosmic microwave background
Literature seems to be certain that the "last scattering" temperature of the CMB was 3,000 K, at a precision +-0.5%. Since the temperature today is 2.73 K, we know that the redshift since the last scattering is
z = 3,000 K / 2.73 K
= 1,100.
The spatial size of the sound horizon in comoving coordinates
In the link there is a textbook by Dr. Hannu Kurki-Suonio, in which the spatial size of the sound horizon is calculated:
where cs(t) is the sound speed (about 60% of c), and a(t) is the scale factor. The integral formula assumes a standard ΛCDM model. The speed of sound before the recombination (last scattering, or decoupling) is:
where ωb is the baryon density and ωγ is the radiation density. We know their approximate values by observing the current universe, and from knowing that the current temperature of the CMB is 2.725 K.
The expansion speed of the universe before recombination follows the formula:
There Ωr is the share of the radiation density of the critical density and Ωm is the share of matter of the critical density. Since |a| is very small, we can ignore the a² and a⁴ terms.
The value of the integral is:
The sound horizon size r* depends on the density of baryons and matter in the current universe. Its dependence on the Hubble constant H₀ in the current universe is not significant: if we calculate time backwards, the final collapse speed of the universe does not depend much on the collapse speed right now.
Apparently, the baryon density and the matter density in the current universe are known quite well. The radiation density we know very well, too. The redshift at the decoupling, zdec, is known well. Thus, if we assume the ΛCDM, we know the sound horizon size r* quite precisely.
The Hubble tension
Our best knowledge of the expansion speed of the current universe come from type Ia supernovae and Cepheids. The data from supernovae and Cepheids agrees about the value 73 km/s / Mpc.
If we assume the ΛCDM model, and calculate backward from the current universe, the cosmic microwave backround rises to the temperature 3,000 K at the redshift 1,100, when the scale factor a of the universe is 1/1,100th of its current value.
The last scattering / recombination / decoupling / end of baryon drag almost certainly happens at that temperature.
The Hubble H₀ constant now has the value 73 km/s / Mpc. The matter density of the current universe is Ωm = 0.31 times the critical density. We can proceed to calculate backward ΛCDM, and can determine the distance D(1,100) in comoving coordinates to the last scattering. That is, a photon scattered then moves the distance D(1,100) in comoving coordinates, before hitting our eyes.
/|
/ |
/ |
/ |
/ θ* | r*
o ------------- last scattering
| D(1,100)
/\ comoving coordinates
An observer on Earth should see the sound horizon length in the cosmic microwave background to subtend an angle
θ* = r* / D(1,100).
Recall that r* is given in comoving coordinates, too.
We can analyze the CMB very precisely from the Planck data, and obtain a value for θ* which is significantly smaller than the value which we calculated above. This is the Hubble tension. "Features" in the CMB look smaller in the sky than they should be.
The Hubble tension. The tension is between the assumption:
- we have measured H₀ correctly in the current universe, as well as other relevant parameters, and ΛCDM is correct,
and the fact:
- features in the CMB look smaller in the sky than what we calculated.
It is an oversimplification to say that the tension is just in the value of H₀.
A simple way to remove the tension is to assume that the universe expanded slower between the last scattering and the current time than assumed by ΛCDM. If the universe expands slower, then a photon sent from the last scattering has more time to travel in comoving coordinates, and the distance D(1,100) is longer. Consequently, the calculated angle θ* is smaller. We can make the angle so small that it agrees with the angle which we see in the sky.
Dark energy already showed us that the universe may expand surprisingly fast. It is not a stretch to claim that it can also expand surprisingly slowly.
The Hubble tension really is a tension in the angle θ* calculated from the current universe versus what we see in the CMB in the sky?
Let us measure the mass density Ωm in the current universe, as well as the value of the Hubble constant H₀ from type Ia supernovae.
Assuming ΛCDM, we can then calculate how the uneven distribution of the current galaxy clusters should show up in the CMB.
Let us check if galaxy surveys, combined with H₀ = 73 km/s / Mpc, really conflict with the CMB we see in the sky.
Zhiwei Yang et al. (2025) derive H₀ from DESI, H0LiCOW, and Pantheon supernovae. DESI has measured the redshifts of millions of galaxies and built a 3D model of the current universe (actually, it is the universe in the past 10 billion years, since the redshifts z are up to 2 in the survey).
H0LiCOW measures gravitational lensing of quasars and derives a value for H₀ from them.
Pantheon+ contains the light curves of 1,550 type Ia supernovae. They can be used to determine the distances to galaxies, as well as Ωm.
Zhiwei Yang et al. calculated H₀ = 73 km/s / Mpc and r* = 138 Mpc. The size of the sound horizon r* is given in the current universe.
The sound horizon size derived from the first 380,000 years of the universe is 147 Mpc. Why the difference?
Let us check what values for r* have other authors derived from DESI and other galaxy surveys.
The Sloan Digital Sky Survey team got a value r* = 150 Mpc. The value differs a lot from the Yang et al. value.
E. A. Zaborowski et al. (2025) derive the value H₀ = 70 km/s / Mpc from DESI.
Tonghua Liu et al. (2024) list values obtained for r* in various studies: 143 Mpc, 137 Mpc, 144 Mpc. Their own result is 140 Mpc.
There seems to be too much variation in the estimates of the sound horizon size r* in the current universe. We cannot draw any conclusions. The Hubble constant H₀ derived in these calculations varies a lot, too. It is not clear if a Hubble tension exists in the calculated values.
Thus, currently, the tension is between the Hubble value 73 km/s / Mpc derived from Cepheids and supernovae versus the Hubble value calculated from the first 380,000 years of the universe plus a ΛCDM model.
What would the sound horizon angular size θ* be in ΛCMD if we tune the universe expansion rate?
In our blog we have brought forward an idea that the universe on the average follows a FLRW model, but there are "bounces" which make it to expand slower or faster. The current epoch of dark energy is a bounce to a faster expansion.
Let us check if there would be a Hubble tension in a CDM model where Λ would be zero "on the average", when the universe expands.
How much has dark energy recently accelerated the expansion relative to CDM?
We can model the expansion with newtonian gravity.
If we assume that H₀ = 67.8 km/s / Mpc, then the critical density is now
ρc = 8.4 * 10⁻²⁷ kg/m³.
The ratio of matter and dark matter to the critical density is believed to be
Ωm = 0.31.
Note that the estimate 0.31 depends on the cosmological model that we use. It is based on how much we believe that the gravity of the mass has slowed down the expansion of the universe since the Big Bang.
Let us assume that the expansion of the universe has slightly accelerated in the past 5 billion years. We calculate the amount of energy involved.
Let us have a spherical volume of the current universe. Let the radius be R.
If the mass density of the universe would be 1/0.31 = 3.2-fold, then newtonian gravity would asymptotically stop the expansion. Let us have a test mass m on the surface of the sphere R. The negative potential energy of m is linearly proportional to the mass M of R, or the density of R.
× • ---> v
R m
We conclude that the negative potential energy of m is -0.31 times its kinetic energy E = 1/2 m v².
Suppose that the velocity v of m has stayed the same for the past 9 billion years. Then dark energy has done ~ 0.31 * E of work on m, against the gravity potential. Quite a lot of work!
Let us use the "epoch" scale from the previous blog post. The scale factor is a ~ 1 / 2ⁿ during epoch n.
The time lengths of various epochs:
t₀ : 9 billion years
t₁ : 3 billion years
t₂ : 1 billion years
t₃ : 350 million years
t₄ : 100 million years
...
t₁₀: 140,000 years.
The contribution to the "angular distance" D of each epoch – this measures how much a photon propagates, in comoving spatial coordinates, during each epoch:
D₀ : 1
D₁ : 0.7
D₂ : 0.5
D₃ : 0.35
D₄ : 0.25
...
D₁₀: 0.03.
The sum D = 3.3.
Let us calculate the kinetic energy of our test mass m during each epoch. Recall that the current gravity potential of m is -0.31 * E, where E is the current kinetic energy of m. When a < 1, the gravity potential energy has added to the kinetic energy:
0 : E
1 : 1.31 E
2 : 2 E
3 : 3 E
4 : 6 E
5 : 11 E
...
10 : 300 E.
If we want to make the angular distance D 8% larger, so that the Hubble tension would be removed, we have to reduce the kinetic energy of m a lot during epochs 2, 3, and 4. The expansion rate should only be 75%. That is, the kinetic energy must be reduced by E during epoch 2, and by 3 E during epoch 4.
Let us think. What does this mean? Initially, during epoch 10, the test mass m has a lot of kinetic energy. As m climbs up from the gravity potential well, it loses kinetic energy.
Note that we have a fine-tuning problem here. How did nature "know" that the kinetic energy of m during epoch 10 must be set almost exactly to the negative gravity potential -300 E? As if nature would be fine-tuning the process, so that it is almost exactly a collapse of a cloud run backwards.
*** WORK IN PROGRESS ***





